Dallas, Texas — Ochsner Interests, Inc. released its 2026 Retail Energy M&A Outlook, highlighting the valuation dynamics and strategic priorities expected to guide buyer activity across the U.S. retail energy sector in the coming year. The analysis reflects shifts in sponsor underwriting, lender requirements, and strategic buyer positioning as the industry focuses on recurring cash-flow durability, portfolio composition, and renewable-linked commercial structures.
Adjusted EBITDA Quality Will Drive 2026 Valuation Outcomes
Buyers are prioritizing high-quality, recurring adjusted EBITDA with predictable margin profiles. With leading suppliers already established across major deregulated markets, growth-at-any-cost customer acquisition no longer commands a premium. Platforms demonstrating disciplined pricing, stable 8–12 percent retail gross-margin performance through cycle, and clarity on customer mix will continue to achieve superior outcomes in 2026 processes. Businesses reliant on volatile or promotional acquisition channels are priced at a discount.
Portfolio Composition Continues Shifting Toward Fixed-Price Exposure
Regulatory scrutiny around extreme variable-rate products has accelerated, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026. Buyers exhibit a clear preference for portfolios where fixed-price contracts comprise the majority of gross-margin contribution, given the improved predictability of earnings and lower regulatory exposure. Portfolios with outsized variable-rate components continue to experience multiple compression relative to fixed-heavy peers.
Renewable-Linked Commercial Products Become a Valuation Differentiator
Ochsner Interests expects rapid expansion of structured renewable offerings within C&I channels in 2026. Significant volumes of utility-scale solar remain uncontracted, creating opportunity for retailers to integrate short-tenor, asset-linked forward strips that provide hedge-adjusted uplift relative to merchant capture while avoiding multi-year PPA constraints. Retailers that operationalize these products materially enhance customer differentiation, strengthen alignment with developers, and improve the forward earnings streams buyers underwrite in M&A processes.
Balanced Power-and-Gas Mix Supports Multiple Expansion
Multi-state platforms with balanced electric and natural-gas portfolios are positioned for valuation upside in 2026. Retailers exceeding 100,000 RCEs with at least 40 percent of revenue from natural gas typically achieve multiple expansion into the 5–6x range, driven by improved diversification, reduced weather-normalized earnings volatility, and stronger risk-adjusted return profiles. Single-commodity retailers remain more exposed to localized regulatory and margin shifts.
ESOP Structures Remain a Viable and Increasingly Utilized Liquidity Path
With evolving tax policy and wider valuation spreads across traditional buyer processes, Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) continue to offer mid-sized retailers an effective liquidity mechanism. ESOPs provide meaningful tax advantages, enhance employee retention, and deliver a high degree of execution certainty for founders and shareholders. Ochsner Interests expects ESOP utilization to increase in 2026 as sellers evaluate alternatives to sponsor-backed acquisitions.
Market Outlook
Ochsner Interests anticipates an active 2026 for middle-market retail platforms as strategic buyers, sponsors, and lenders recalibrate around margin durability, customer quality, renewable integration, and disciplined product design. Platforms that demonstrate stability, operational clarity, and credible renewable-linked strategies will be best positioned for premium outcomes.
About Ochsner Interests
Ochsner Interests, Inc. is an independent investment banking and advisory firm focused on retail energy M&A, structured transactions, and product development across deregulated U.S. power markets. The firm advises retail electricity providers, developers, and financial sponsors on strategic transactions, capital formation, and commercial product design.
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